Market
Likely, unlikely and toss-up describe the market's odds (its price), not a prediction by Omenly.
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Sports
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Future Feed
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ESCALATING
Sensitive topic: the question matches a watched keyword. That raises its priority in the feed, not how unusual the trading was.
Likely, unlikely and toss-up describe the market's odds (its price), not a prediction by Omenly.
Signals appear after 2+ scan cycles detect unusual activity.
Alert Feed
Verified Predictions
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Original prediction
Insider activity
Post-transaction holdings: shares
Material event disclosed
Verified predictions appear here when Omenly's algorithm or a linked regulator confirms a prior signal. For all regulatory actions Omenly is tracking, see Regulatory Activity.
Flagged Signals
Personal bookmarks. Flagged signals persist past their normal expiry so you can keep watching them after the Future Feed window closes.Click the Flag button on a Future Feed card to bookmark it here.
Regulatory Activity
All officially-sourced regulatory actions Omenly ingests — SEC litigation releases, DOJ press releases, FCA enforcement notices. Linked entries also appear in Verified Predictions when they cross-reference an Omenly signal.Adjust the time-window pills above to widen the search, or check the source filter — try "All".
All regulatory actions Omenly currently ingests are SEC / DOJ / FCA financial enforcement. Other categories will populate as international and non-financial regulators come online in later phases.
Track Record
How Omenly's signals did against the market's own odds. One verdict per market and implied outcome. Excess is the hit rate minus the market's price at the signal, with a 95% interval clustered by market. "Edge" needs at least verdicts and an interval above zero. Below 5 markets no interval is shown ("—").No predictive edge was found in this evaluation (too few markets to decide).
No predictive edge was found: the pre-registered evaluation of price-move alerts did not show that their moves reverse.
Alerts after the market had closed: (not counted in any rate or scorecard).
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Scorecard
No verdicts yet.
| Signal | n | Markets | Hit | Baseline | Excess (95% CI) | Brier mkt | Pending | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
For reference, at alert level (several alerts on one market counted separately): n , excess .
Convergence vs resolution
Did the market move toward the signal's side afterwards (the trade's own impact excluded), and did that direction match the outcome? Mean move toward the implied outcome at 24 h and 7 d; agreement is the share whose direction matched the resolution. 95% intervals clustered by market. Each signal shows two rows: every row, as pre-registered (P7); and, marked post-hoc (addendum 2), the same without rows whose market resolved within the horizon (a resolving market moves toward its outcome anyway), with how many were left out. That second rule was added after seeing the data.
Neither is evidence of predictive power until the pre-registered evaluation (Phase 10.5).
The ledger is off: no labels.
No labels yet.
| Signal | Rows | Summary | Move 24 h | Move 7 d | Agree 24 h | Agree 7 d | Left out (24 h / 7 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all rows (P7) | – | ||||||
| post-hoc (addendum 2) |
Lead time
Time from the signal to the largest single price move toward the eventual outcome. It stands in for the news lead time until that has passed its precision review.
News lead time (signal to the first public report) is withheld until its precision review passes (pre-registration P7 / P7a).
News lead time
Time from the signal to the first public report (GDELT); "news first" means the report came before the signal.
The case library and the model registry arrive in Phase 10.5.
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Settings
Detection Categories
Master toggles for what kinds of events Omenly surfaces. Choices save immediately and will drive feed filtering as new categories light up.
World Events & Prediction Markets
Sports & Betting Markets
Finance & Trading Markets
Default Time Window
Sets the initial time window applied to Future Feed, Alert Feed, Verified Predictions, and Regulatory Activity on each page load. You can still widen or narrow per-section after the page loads.
Platform Monitoring
Detection Thresholds
×
Alert when 24hr volume exceeds this multiple of the rolling average. Lower = more sensitive.
pp
Alert when probability shifts by this many percentage points in one scan cycle.
$
Alert on individual trades above this USD amount.
$
Ignore volume spikes on markets whose average volume is below this. Prevents noise from micro-markets.
trades
Flag accounts with this many or fewer prior trades as "new/suspicious".
Scan Settings
min
h
How far back the Future Feed looks for correlated signals.
$
cycles
Alert Channels
Credentials are managed via environment variables / secrets.
Discord Webhook
Email (Resend)
Signal Quality Filters
–
%
Only alert on markets currently priced within this range. Markets outside this band are usually near-resolved and produce noise.
Filter out markets resolving sooner than this. End-of-period convergence dominates short-dated markets and creates false positives.
When on, only alert when price moves against the expected drift toward resolution. Filters out boring convergence-to-truth movement.
pp
How many percentage points the price must move against expected drift to count as a surprise.
Look back this far to confirm the market was previously contested. Catches the "market was uncertain, then suddenly wasn't" pattern.
When on, only alert on markets that were inside the contested range at some point within the baseline window.
signals
Require at least this many independent signals (volume spike, price move, large trade, new account, surprise direction, account cluster) before alerting. Conjunction is the strongest filter against noise.
h
Look for multiple new/suspicious accounts trading the same side within this window. Coordinated activity is a strong insider tell. (Currently scoped to within-scan; cross-scan aggregation is a future upgrade.)
accounts
Number of new/suspicious accounts trading the same direction required to flag a cluster.
When on, suppress alerts on markets where a major news event broke recently. (No news feed wired up yet — toggle is reserved for a future release.)
h
How long after a news event to suppress alerts on related markets.
/ 100
Composite score combining all signals. Higher = more selective. The exact breakdown shows on each alert.
Trained Topics
Keywords Omenly uses to filter and rank alerts. Click a keyword to edit it, press Enter to save. Click × to delete.
Muted
Alerts containing these words are hidden everywhere.
No muted topics yet.
Boosted
Alerts containing these words are elevated in the Future Feed.
No boosted topics yet.
Sports & Betting Markets — Sources
No sports-specific sources are planned. Sports prediction markets are scanned with the other markets.
Finance & Trading Markets — Sources
These ingesters are switched on and off in the server's environment settings, not here.
Source status unavailable.
Data integrity
Ledger
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Account
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Session
Expires after 7 days of inactivity
Security
Your password must be at least 8 characters. Changing it keeps you signed in here and signs out every other session.
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Terms, Privacy, and Disclaimer
The terms governing your use of Omenly, our approach to your data, and important context about what our alerts do and do not represent.
Terms of Service
Last updated: May 3, 2026
1. Acceptance of Terms
By accessing or using Omenly (the "Service"), operated by Matthew J. Weiss ("Omenly," "we," "us," or "our"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service ("Terms"). If you do not agree, do not use the Service.
2. Description of Service
Omenly monitors publicly available data from prediction markets and surfaces statistical anomalies that may warrant further inspection. The Service is provided for informational and research purposes only.
3. No Financial, Legal, or Investment Advice
Omenly does not provide financial advice, investment advice, legal advice, or trading recommendations. Nothing on the Service constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any security, derivative, prediction market contract, or other financial instrument. You are solely responsible for your own financial and legal decisions.
4. No Allegation of Wrongdoing
Alerts, signals, and analyses produced by Omenly identify statistical patterns in publicly available market data. They do not constitute accusations, allegations, or determinations that any person, entity, or platform has engaged in insider trading, market manipulation, fraud, or any other unlawful conduct. Patterns flagged by the Service may have entirely legitimate explanations.
5. Acceptable Use
You agree not to:
- use the Service to harass, defame, or make public accusations against identifiable individuals or entities based on Omenly outputs;
- scrape, copy, or redistribute the Service's content, code, or outputs without written permission;
- attempt to reverse engineer, decompile, or interfere with the Service's operation;
- use the Service in violation of any applicable law or regulation.
6. Intellectual Property
All content, code, design, methodology, detection logic, and outputs produced by the Service are the property of Matthew J. Weiss and are protected by copyright, trademark, and other intellectual property laws. "Omenly" and the Omenly logo are trademarks of Matthew J. Weiss.
7. Disclaimer of Warranties
THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, OR NON-INFRINGEMENT. We do not warrant that alerts are accurate, complete, timely, or free of error.
8. Limitation of Liability
TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, MATTHEW J. WEISS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, OR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS, REVENUES, DATA, OR TRADING LOSSES, ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO YOUR USE OF THE SERVICE.
9. Indemnification
You agree to indemnify and hold harmless Matthew J. Weiss from any claims, damages, or expenses arising from your use of the Service or your violation of these Terms.
10. Changes to Terms
We may modify these Terms at any time. Continued use of the Service after changes constitutes acceptance of the revised Terms.
11. Governing Law
These Terms are governed by the laws of the State of Florida, without regard to conflict of law principles.
12. Contact
Questions about these Terms: mjw@elbensci.com
Privacy Policy
Last updated: May 3, 2026
1. Information We Collect
Omenly may collect:
- Account information you provide (email, username) if account features are enabled
- Usage data (pages visited, alerts viewed, session duration)
- Technical data (IP address, browser type, device information)
- Publicly available prediction market data (this is not user data)
2. How We Use Information
We use collected information to:
- Operate, maintain, and improve the Service
- Communicate with you about the Service
- Detect, prevent, and address technical issues or abuse
- Comply with legal obligations
3. Information Sharing
We do not sell your personal information. We may share information with:
- Service providers who assist in operating the Service (hosting, analytics)
- Law enforcement or regulators when legally required
- Successor entities in the event of a merger, acquisition, or sale
4. Data Retention
We retain personal information only as long as necessary for the purposes outlined above or as required by law.
5. Security
We implement reasonable technical and organizational measures to protect your information. No system is perfectly secure, and we cannot guarantee absolute security.
6. Your Rights
Depending on your jurisdiction, you may have rights to access, correct, delete, or export your personal data. Contact us at mjw@elbensci.com to exercise these rights.
7. Cookies
The Service may use cookies and similar technologies for authentication, preferences, and analytics. You can control cookies through your browser settings.
8. Children
The Service is not directed at individuals under 18, and we do not knowingly collect information from children.
9. Changes
We may update this Privacy Policy. Material changes will be communicated through the Service or by email.
10. Contact
Disclaimer
Last updated: May 3, 2026
PLEASE READ THIS DISCLAIMER CAREFULLY BEFORE USING OMENLY.
Omenly surfaces statistically anomalous trading and market activity using algorithmic analysis of publicly available data. Signals reflect deviations from historical patterns and are not accusations or determinations of wrongdoing by any individual or entity.
Anomalous activity may have many legitimate explanations, including but not limited to scheduled trading plans, hedging operations, market-making activity, public information releases, algorithmic trading, and routine portfolio rebalancing.
Past anomalous activity does not predict future outcomes. Omenly is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. Users should not make trading, investment, or other decisions based on Omenly signals.
Verified Feed entries sourced from regulatory or law enforcement actions reflect the public record of those actions and do not represent independent verification by Omenly. Algorithmically self-confirmed entries reflect the temporal coincidence of signals and subsequent events and are not determinations of causation or wrongdoing.
1. Nature of Alerts
Omenly monitors publicly available data from prediction markets and surfaces statistical anomalies — such as unusual volume, price movement, or trading patterns — that occur in proximity to resolution events. These alerts represent statistical observations, not conclusions.
A flagged pattern is NOT:
- An allegation that any individual or entity engaged in insider trading
- An allegation of market manipulation, fraud, or any unlawful conduct
- A determination by any regulator, exchange, or authority
- Investment advice, trading guidance, or a recommendation to take any action
- A prediction of future market behavior
A flagged pattern MAY have many legitimate explanations, including but not limited to: public information becoming widely known, coordinated but lawful trading activity, market liquidity dynamics, algorithmic strategies, or coincidence.
2. No Professional Advice
Omenly is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or legal advisor. Nothing on the Service constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or regulatory advice. You should consult qualified professionals before making any decision based on Service outputs.
3. Accuracy and Completeness
Omenly's detection methodology relies on data feeds, statistical thresholds, and heuristics that may produce false positives, miss genuine anomalies, or contain errors. We make no representation that alerts are accurate, complete, or timely. Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate.
4. No Liability for User Actions
You are solely responsible for any decisions you make. Matthew J. Weiss disclaims all liability for trading losses, missed opportunities, reputational harm to third parties caused by your use of Service outputs, legal consequences of your actions, or any other damages arising from your use of the Service.
5. No Public Accusations
You agree not to use Omenly outputs to publicly accuse, defame, or harass identifiable individuals, entities, or platforms. Surfacing a statistical pattern is not equivalent to demonstrating wrongdoing, and treating it as such may expose you to defamation liability.
6. No Regulatory Affiliation
Omenly is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operating on behalf of the SEC, CFTC, FBI, any prediction market platform, or any other regulator or authority. We do not report findings to authorities on your behalf.
7. Acknowledgment
By using Omenly, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to this Disclaimer in addition to the Terms of Service.
Questions: mjw@elbensci.com